Alternative Realities in Camden, NJ?
Soaring Real-Estate Values and Grade “A” Bond Ratings versus Entrenched Poverty and a Failure of Trickle-Down Economics
There are two diverging perspectives regarding Camden, New Jersey’s economic prospects. On the one hand, there is optimism that the city is in the process of being revitalized. Within the past few months, two pieces of information would support this first perspective: 1) real-estate values in 3 out of the city’s 4 zip codes are among the fasting rising in the state and 2) a positive S&P Global bond rating. On the other hand, data from a variety of sources that tap into Camden’s social and economic health tell a much different story – one of enduring disadvantage and vulnerability that has not changed much since the $1.6 billion economic package that the city received in the 2010s.
Zillow analyzed home values across 547 zip codes in New Jersey from January 2024 to January 2025. Three of Camden’s zip codes were among the top five in the entire state in terms of seeing the largest increases. Zip Code 08104 was #1, 08102 was #2, and 08105 came in at #5.
Below is a map of Camden’s 4 ZIP codes as well as a map of Camden in relation to its broader surroundings:
Why/how did 3 out of 4 of the city’s zip codes top the list?
Of course, we are dealing with incredibly low base rates (i.e., “Time 1”; January 2024) in Camden. Zip codes 08104 and 08102 – numbers 1 and 2 in the entire state, respectively – were selling, on average, for less than $100,000 in early 2024 with properties in zip code 08105 selling for $143k.
This makes sense. Historically, Camden has been in bad shape since the early 1970s. Chapter 2 of my forthcoming book details the rise and fall of Camden in order to contextualize the city that underwent the biggest experiment in police reform in US history (arguably). White flight, a shrinking population and subsequent reductions in tax base and political power, crime/violence, poor health and educational outcomes have done a number on real estate value. It is truly tragic. If you are interested, I recommend reading Howard Gillette’s “Camden After the Fall.” He also has a blog that he writes in from time to time.
Who is buying these properties? Is it corporations or flippers trying to gentrify the neighborhoods and Camden as a whole? If so, then there may be real concerns regarding economic and social justice issues. Overall, I’m incredibly confused at how this remarkable growth in real estate value is happening since it flies in the face of what we know affects property value. It’s all about location, location, location… And poor health/social outcomes, underperforming schools, gun violence/crime/murder, etc. all negatively influence property values.
I’d like to spend some time describing a few of these zip codes, particularly 08104. I’m going to rely on the CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), shootings/homicide data from open public records requests (OPRA), and the percentage of people sent to NJ state prisons across place.
The SVI uses 16 U.S. Census variables from the 5-year American Community Survey (ACS) in order to create measures grouped into four themes that cover four major areas of social vulnerability and then combined into a single measure of overall social vulnerability (see below):
2022, albeit a few years dated, is the most recent version of the SVI currently available. These are all of Camden’s zip codes based on percentiles compared to the all other zip codes in the state (n = 598). Note that the 100th percentile = the MOST disadvantaged/vulnerable place across each theme:
ZIP Code 08104, which experienced a 20% increase in property values last year, ranked among the HIGHEST in the state in terms of social vulnerability/economic disadvantage.
Theme 1: 18th highest ZIP in state (97.09th percentile)
Theme 2: 3rd highest ZIP in state (99.66th percentile)
Theme 3: 10th highest ZIP in state (98.47th percentile)
Theme 4: 22nd highest ZIP in state (96.42nd percentile )
Overall themes: 5th highest ZIP in state (99.32nd percentile)
ZIP codes 08102 and 08105 didn’t fare much better either.
SVI measures for ZIP codes only exist in 2022. However, SVI measures for census tracts as a unit of analysis date back to 2000. Here is a comparison of all 19 census tracts in Camden from 2010 and 2022. Again, remember that the $1.6 billion in tax breaks/incentives to the city occurred in the interim.
2010: 18/19 census tracts in the 90+ percentile for SES vulnerability; 16/19 for 95+ percentile (out of 2,175 census tracts in NJ)
2022: 14/19 census tracts in the 90+ percentile for SES vulnerability; 7/19 for 95+ percentile (out of 2,175 census tracts in NJ)
2010: 15/19 census tracts in the 90+ percentile for OVERALL vulnerability; 11/19 for 95+ percentile (out of 2,175 census tracts in NJ)
2022: 12/19 census tracts in the 90+ percentile for OVERALL vulnerability; 9/19 for 95+ percentile (out of 2,175 census tracts in NJ)
While homicides are down from their peak in 2012 (n = 67), gun violence is still very much a problem - particularly in zip code 08104. Using OPRA’d data on fatal and injurious shootings (i.e., struck by gunfire) for years 2011-2012 and 2019-2021, you can see how gun violence has trended among young men aged 18-29:
Gun violence actually got worse for the most vulnerable demographic in 2019-2021 in ZIP 08104 compared to 2011-2013.
2019-2021 is a few years dated by now. As a result, I looked at all homicides in Camden from January 2023 through December 2024 using data from the Camden County Prosecutor’s Office’s press releases. This timeframe covers the January 2024 through January 2025 analysis by Zillow.
16 out the city’s 28 homicides in 2023 occurred in ZIP 08104 (57%). 11 out of the city’s 17 homicides (a nice year-over-year decrease) in 2024 occurred occurred in ZIP 08104 (65%). Gun violence and murder specifically are still very concerning issues in Camden as a whole and ZIP 08104 in particular. Did 5 fewer homicides in 2024 compared to 2023 affect property values that much? I find this hard to believe given the totality of the entrenched, enduring disadvantage/vulnerability presented.
Due to a law prohibiting prison gerrymandering, the Prison Policy Initiative was able to determine where NJ state prison inmates come from in 2020. All of the ZIP codes in Camden have among the highest rates of incarceration in the state:
I genuinely want to know what is happening. How is real estate in some of the most economically disadvantaged/socially vulnerable zip codes in the state increasing so much?
If you have any thoughts on the matter, then I’d love to hear them in the comments.